Advocate 17/4

I am currently in Wanaka. I received the following from Waikato Regional Council and pass it on to you. The weekend does not look great but the worst of the weather should have passed but I would predict the river in flood.

Hello all,


Attached is a Regional Hazards Advisory for the current weather alerts.


To summarise:

  • The low pressure system has moved across the Tasman and is currently beginning to affect the region. This will bring heavy rain across the whole region.
  • (Ex-Tropical) Cyclone Cook is continuing to track towards New Zealand. It is currently tracking further west than what was projected yesterday. This means that it will likely affect the Waikato region more than predicted yesterday – Heavy Rain and Severe Wind Warnings are in place across the region as follows:
    • Coromandel Peninsula: 150 to 205 mm in 39 hours from 9am Wednesday to midnight Thursday; and wind of up to 150km/hour or more possible from Thursday afternoon with large waves of 5 metres or more.
    • Taupo: 150 to 205 mm in 39 hours from 9am Wednesday to midnight Thursday; and wind of up to 150km/hour or more possible from Thursday afternoon until early Friday.
    • Waikato and Waitomo: 100 to 150 mm in 33 hours from midday today to 9pm Thursday; and wind of up to 140km/hour or more possible from Thursday afternoon until midnight Friday
  • The systems are converging and it is unlikely that there will be a clear gap between these systems.
  • As mentioned in the last advisory, Northerly tropical systems such as Cook are extremely difficult to predict and can alter course and intensity rapidly.
  • In the Coromandel Peninsula there is potential for further slips to occur and debris flows during periods of high intensity rainfall.
  • The East Coast of the Coromandel Peninsula is forecast to have severe gales, large swells (5m), and storm surge from Thursday evening. Extreme care should be taken around coastal areas at high tide times (0836 and 2100 Thursday and 0916 and 2141 Friday).
  • Taupo lake levels and the Waikato River system are being closely monitored by the Regional Hazards team and Mercury. We are currently still in Phase 2 of the High Flow Management Plan.
  • Lake Taupo is expected to excel the Maximum Control Level (MCL) of 357.25 tomorrow (Thursday) and may exceed the 1% AEP level of 357.5 m later in the week.
  • Karapiro discharge is currently 500 cumecs, Lake Taupo discharge currently 300 cumecs (maximum).
  • We are in TIER 1 response (Waihou/Piako still in Response Phase), but will enter TIER 2 later today, due to expected sever weather.
  • The next MetService alert bulletins will be issued at or before 9pm.


The Regional Hazards and Regional Flood Response teams are monitoring the situation and will provide another hazard advisory if/when there is a significant change in the information provided by MetService.


Thank you



Eric Wilson